He sees himself as the latest in a long line of Iraqi and Arab rulers from Nebuchadnezzar to Saladin. At the height of the Iran-Iraq war in the Eighties, when resources were short, he even started to rebuild the ruins of ancient Babylon using unpleasant, mustard-coloured bricks, each with his name imprinted on it.One of the most extraordinary architectural excesses of the Iraqi leader is the monument in Baghdad celebrating “victory” over Iran in the Iran-Iraq war It is the Iraqi Arc de Triomphe. Two metal forearms, modelled on those of the Iraqi leader himself, each 40ft long, reach out of the ground clutching steel sabers, whose tips cross, forming an arch under which the Iraqi army often marches.These symbols of President Saddam’s personality cult have led to doubts about his ability to reach rational decisions. The Iraqi leader has committed two catastrophic political errors by overplaying his hand.

The first was in 1980 when he attacked Iran, believing it would prove an easy victim because of the chaos of the Iranian revolution. By the time it ended eight years later, 670,000 Iraqis were dead, wounded or prisoners.It was a costly war, but Iraq, thanks to help from the US, Soviet Union and most of the rest of the world, came out marginally ahead Briefly, Iraq was the main power of the Gulf. Two years later he invaded Kuwait, leading to a confrontation with the US and its allies which he could not possibly win.In starting both wars, President Saddam showed he was far less astute in international politics than in judging political developments in Iraq. He made concessions too late, on the eve of war, when they were ineffectual.But the dictator has also been at his most effective when staring defeat in the face, in 1982 against Iran and in 1991 against the US.

He showed he has good nerves and is utterly ruthless towards those who showed sign of wavering. Queried in an interview about a purge of the Iraqi military during the Iran-Iraq war he gave the less than reassuring reply: “Only two divisional commanders and the head of a mechanised unit have been executed. That’s quite normal in war.”In recent months he has carefully taken precautions to guard against another rebellion among Iraq’s Shia Muslims, such as that which almost unseated him in 1991. Iraqi security forces have maps of every city district and village where loyalties are dubious. Houses thought to harbour families hostile to the regime are marked in red, those whose allegiance is doubtful in black.It is unlikely, going by precedent and President Saddam’s heroic image of himself, that he would consider voluntary exile even with guarantees for his security.

Some reports are wishful thinking by Arab governments; others are propaganda. In 1991, for instance, the Foreign Office disseminated a report that his wife, Sajida, was seeking refuge in Mauritania, but was swiftly forced to admit the story was untrue.Voluntary exile would also go against President Saddam’s sense of tribal honour, a horror of anything which could be portrayed as cowardice and retreat in the face of the enemy. He comes from a tribal society and has always prided himself on his generosity to those who helped him and pitiless retribution against those who crossed him.This has made the President a difficult man to advise. He has said he prided himself on his ability to sniff out treachery.